2009/07/14

Tokyo Prefectural Election 2009

Tokyo Prefectural Election was held on Sunday, 7/12 2009.

There are 10.6 million registered voters in Tokyo and the turnout was 54.5% (up 10.50points from last election in 2005). They were to elect the 127 Assembly members in 42 electoral districts.

The following is the election result.




This election was seen by many as a "test" for the prime minister Taro Aso and the ruling party the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). It was also a "test" to check how much support the largest opposition party Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is going to achieve.

The result:
DPJ gained 20 seats, 54 of their 58 candidates were elected.
LDP lost 10 seats, 38 of their 58 candidates were elected.
The ruling coalition (LDP and Komeito) was unable to gain absolute majority which was 64 seats, nor was DPJ to gain absolute majority. It is the first time for LDP to lose its status as strongest party in the Metropolitan Assembly since 1965.

Does this "landslide victory" by DPJ mean people really support DPJ? Not necessarily. People were obviously dissatisfied with the ruling parties, and there weren't any alternative for the voters except for DPJ.

BTW, all of the DPJ's leaders (supreme advisors, party leader, deputy chief) are exLDP.
-Supreme advisors Tsutomu Hata (exLDP) Hirohisa Fujii(exLDP) Kozo Watanabe (exLDP)
-Party leader Yukio Hatoyama (exLDP)
-Deputy chief Ichiro Ozawa(exLDP) Azuma Koshiishi (exLDP) Naoto Kan (exLDP)

An interesting analysis about the votes by a blog "Igarashi Jin no Tensei Jingo" (Note that the numbers slightly differ from above as the above data is a comparison between "before the election and after the election" whereas the following data is a comparison between "the election result of 2005 and 2009")

DPJ  +19  +1,171,000
LDP  -10   -99,000
Komei   0   -64,000
Communist -5   +14,000
Other  -4   -91,000

From the data above, you can see that a large number of votes went to DPJ- larger than what LDP lost - which can probably be explained that a large number of voters that did not go to election last time voted for DPJ. Judging from the number of the seats, LDP and communist party lost. However, actually Communist party had increased the number of votes. Communist party's votes were dispersed whereas the New Komeito had an election strategy to limit their candidates to 23 and get ALL of the 23 candidates elected despite the fact that they have lost 64,000 votes overall compared to last election. Komeito is a political party backed up by the religious organization Soka Gakkai.

What people really wants is "CHANGE", as they have distrust in politics. The next month and a half will be important for both parties to show to the nation what changes they can expect. The national election for the House of Representatives will be held on 8/30.
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